Thoughts on SVID from an Auto Industry Standpoint

Gene Farber

SVID Workshop
December 17-18, 1997
Washington, DC

Unpredictable External Factors

Operational Features

(Percent of U.S. Passenger Car Fleet)

Feature19751995
Automatic Trans.92.088.0
4-5-6-Speed Manual  5.512.0
ABS  0.657.1
Cruise Control19.776.3
Air Conditioning72.095.0
Remote Side Mirrors67.497.0
Rear Defog/Defrost25.794.1
Power Steering46.898.5

In 1996 the top 10 selling passenger cars had front wheel drive.

US Car and Light Truck Sales
(Millions)

Year Cars Trucks TOTAL

1974

8.5

2.3

10.7

1984

10.4

3.2

13.6

1995

8.5

6.1

14.6

1996

8.5

6.9

15.4

 

In 1996 the top three selling vehicles in the U.S.were trucks!

Licensing and Registration

Year Registered Vehicles Licensed Drivers
(Millions) 		Vehicles per Driver
(Millions)
1970 112 108 0.96
1995 177 201 1.14

** 18% increase

Miles Traveled

Year Miles Traveled
(Billions) 		Miles per Driver
per Year		 Miles per Vehicle
per Year
1970 1,109 9,946 10,269
1995 2,476 14,020 12,318
Fuel Economy
(Passenger Cars)

Year Fleet Average
Miles per Gallon
1974 14.2
1984 26.9
1995 28.6

Annual Fatalities

1970 1995
Fatalities (1000's) 54.6 43.3
Per 10,000 vehicles 4.92 2.11
Per 100 Million Vehicle Miles 4.88 1.79
Per 100,000 Population 26.8 16.5
Average Cost for a New Car

Cost ($) CPI
(1982/84 = 100)		 Adjusted Cost ($)
1970 3,649 38.8 14,333*
1995 18,360 152.4 18,360

* 28% real increase

Convergent Design

Enclosed body with glass greenhouse

Wheels at four corners

Rubber balloon tires

Front-mounted internal combustion engine using gasoline (electronic FI)

Two-wheel drive (FWD)

3-5 Speed transmission (automatic)

Spring/damper suspension

Headlights (high and low beam)

Braking, cornering 0.8g

Controls:

Steering wheel (power)

Brake pedal (power disk)

Throttle (cruise control)

Transmission (automatic)

Universal conveniences and features (audio, climate control, windshield wipers washers, roll-up windows, displays, mirrors, parking brake, horn, locks, storage)

Prognosticating

General performance - not much change

Electric vehicles (battery, fuel cell) ???

Smart air bags - likely

Automatic stability control - it's here

ABS - it's here ¼ but ???

Collision-avoidance - ??? close, but no cigar

ITS - navigation - here but still very expensive ???

ACC - still 50/50 inU.S.over next 5 years - but could be harbinger of major changes in driving

Telematics - Not on the horizon - no infrastructure (neither commercial nor public case has been made)

Integrated reconfigurable display - still 5-10 years away

Voice activated controls - getting better; depends on customers

Highway automation - maybe a little bit

Infrastructure Assist for ACC and Collision-Avoidance

  • Vehicles as probes for traffic management information

  • Electronic delineation

  • High-accuracy digital maps + Differential GPS

  • Intersection collision warning systems

  • Dedicated lanes for ACC cars (serendipitous platooning)

  • Communication between vehicles

  • Common symbols and icons

Conclusions

  • Cars are safer and more competent and economical than they were 25 years ago

  • Not much has happened to cars over the last 25 years to have a significant influence on highway design

  • Not much is likely to happen to the basic passenger vehicle over the next 10-15 years to have a significant effect on highway design¼

  • Except:

    ITS features that involve vehicle-infrastructure interactions - if and when
Return to Workshop on a Conceptual Framework for
Simultaneous Vehicle and Infrastructure Design (SVID)

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