Freight Modeling Reference List:

2009	(3)

Goodchild, Anne, Eric Jessup and Edward McCormack. Requirements for a Washington State Freight Simulation Model, (2009), 49p.
Abstract - Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) and TransNow have already allocated $190,000 to researchers at the University of Washington (UW) and the Washington State University (WSU) to explore the flow of goods through the transportation system, the dynamics of that flow in response to disruption, and the economic impact to the industries supported by that flow. This on-going research, which will develop a geographic information system (GIS)-based data flow network, will help increase our understanding of the sensitivity of economic productivity to infrastructure availability, laying the groundwork for reducing the sensitivity and improving the resilience of the transportation system. The requested TransNow funding will be linked to the WSU/UW research effort (and completed by the same team) and will develop specifications for a simulation-based methodology. The results from this project will assist WSDOT in determining the utility and feasibility of simulation tools for exploring freight system resiliency as well as assist in planning and engineering decisions. The project will develop the requirements for a simulation-based methodology that can be used to estimate the impacts of freight flows generated by different economic industry sectors on the transportation system within the State of Washington. The following issues will be addressed: Estimated cost to build the model; Data requirements; Long-term maintenance of the model; Geographic scope of the model; and Model methodology. 	 http://www.transnow.org/publication/final-reports/documents/TNW2009-11.pdf

Munuzuri, Jesus, Pablo Cortes, Luis Onieva and Jose Guadix. Modeling Freight Delivery Flows: Missing Link of Urban Transport Analysis. Journal of Urban Planning and Development 135, no. 3 (2009): pp 91-99.
Abstract - Urban freight transport has barely incited any modeling efforts when compared to passenger cars and public transport, which is mainly due to the lack of available data and the complexity of the delivery route patterns and the involved decision making. The authors present here a modeling approach consisting of a demand model followed by an entropy maximization procedure to estimate an origin-destination matrix for urban freight transport vehicles, both for business to business and home deliveries, during the morning peak hour. This approach requires relatively few data inputs in comparison with other existing models and represents an initial step toward the inclusion of freight delivery models in overall urban transport planning. The application of the model is illustrated with a case study in the city of Seville, with its efficiency tested by the validation of the results using actual traffic counts. 	 

Puckett, S. M. Improving Our Understanding of Freight Travel Decision Making: Motivations, Constraints, Incentives and Interactions,  (2009) 41p (resource papers).
Abstract - Key advances have been made in recent years relating to the modelling of decision-making process underlying the movement of freight. In the area of network modelling, micro-simulation techniques of freight travel choices, modelling of land-use/transport network feedback effects, and accounting for physical characteristics of logistics networks have added important structural behavioural elements to models from which standard models centering on techniques such as assigning commodity flows have only abstracted. Furthermore, recent empirical applications have added to our understanding of the relative merit that freight-related transport policies could have in achieving desired objectives. Developments in both network modelling and empirical freight travel behaviour applications have extended the manner in which analysts account for multiple behavioural dimensions that shape how freight is ultimately carried. These dimensions include forces motivating freight stakeholders to enact particular strategies, constraints that restrict a subset of potential strategies from being observed, incentives to encourage desired behaviour, and the impacts of interactivity across interdependent freight travel decision makers. This paper highlights some key developments that have been made in these areas, supplementing discussions of advances in research with empirical tools that may show promise in improving our ability to faithfully represent determinants of freight travel behaviour in network models and policy applications. 
International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, 12th, 2009, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India StartDate:00000 EndDate:00000 - International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, 12th, 2009, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India StartDate:00000 EndDate:00000, Cation, http://iatbr2009.asu.edu/ocs/index.php/iatbr/2009/schedConf/resource

2010	(9)

Al-Azzawi, Marwan. A Freight Transport Model for Scotland,  (2010) 14p.
Abstract - This paper describes how the Freight Model for Scotland (FMS) is a multi-modal transport model, specifically designed to model freight transportation. It covers the entire land area of Scotland, including the Scottish islands, and also has connections to major external freight trading areas such as England, Ireland, Wales and international origins/destinations (OD). FMS has been developed independently originally as an in-house system to make good use of available transport data, and has been applied to many studies over the years. Like all good models it is continuously updated with new data and improvements based on its application in various projects. All four modes of freight transport are modeled (road, rail, sea and air) and the Scottish network includes all the main road links (with some local roads), railway lines and terminals, strategic and medium-sized ports and associated routes, and airports where freight cargoes are handled. The model zone system is capable of covering all 32 local authority areas in Scotland as well as the 7 Regional Transport Partnership (RTP) regions, thereby providing the basis to test the effects of schemes and policies/strategies at all levels of Government in Scotland (local, regional and national). A particular feature of FMS is the development of a comprehensive base year database of freight OD movements across the country, which can produce input datasets for specific local areas, regions and corridors. The total freight market is segmented by 10 different groups of freight commodity cargos to take into account the different characteristics of the freight market and their varying sensitivities to changes in land-uses and economic factors. This allows for a more refined and accurate modeling process and these cargo-groups can be adjusted to reflect different socio-economic scenarios when forecasting. The model brings together a series of techniques that draws on published research by others, into an integrated package using industry-standard modeling software and procedures based on Government guidance to ensure results are based on methods which are well tested and understood. The model consists of the following applications: - Generation and Distribution sub-model:– a Base Year OD database generates a matrix of observed flows between model zones. The outputs are freight tonnes for each of the 10 different groups of commodities for each OD movement in the model. Future changes are estimated using land-use and economic data in each zone to produce Future Year matrices; (1) Mode Choice sub-model: a series of disaggregated logit models use network skims and user-defined data (e.g. costs/charges) to adjust Future Year OD matrices by modes of transport; (2) Assignment sub-model: a detailed network-based model identifies route choice and assigns the OD matrices to a multi-modal network for predictions at the network level. For more accurate modeling, each of the 10 groups of freight commodities are assigned separately to take into account varying levels of sensitivities to factors such as value-of-time, costs, capacity, etc; and (3) Evaluation sub-models: a series of modules which estimate the impacts of assigned flows on safety (e.g. road accidents, etc), environment (e.g. emissions, noise, Sensitive Lorry Miles, etc), accessibility indices, network performance (e.g. tonnes-kms, levels of service, capacity utilization, etc) and transport economic impacts (e.g. time savings, vehicle operating costs, revenues, carbon costs, etc). The model can be used to provide data for a variety of tests ranging from individual project / scheme evaluation to policy / strategy development. The above features in FMS have been integrated into a complete modeling system. An important factor has been to maximize practical useability through a graphical user interface (GUI) and geographical information system (GIS) to allow presentation of results to the lay-person in easy-to-understand figures and plans. The GUI allows the user to set up and run several model batches, taking care of all the out ut file management, increasing productivity. Scott Wilson Ltd has considerable hands-on experience of freight modeling and studies, and the modular approach to FMS has enabled the outputs from each sub-model to be benchmarked against identifiable features and trends in the freight market, enabling a good representation of how the freight market actually works. Model validation exercises were carried out and overall results show there is a good match between model outputs and observed flows. The paper concludes with a review of some of the problem areas encountered in developing models of this type, including the particular issues arising from emerging changes in the freight marketplace. 
European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport - European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3545/confid/16

Anderson, Michael D., Gregory A. Harris, Lauren Jennings Neppel and Lisa S. Blanchard. Using a Federal Database and Local Industry Sector Knowledge to Develop Future Freight Forecasts,  (2010) 9p.
Abstract - Freight transportation is often not explicitly modeled, but is included implicitly as a percentage of non-home-based trips, which has nothing to do with the actual behavior of freight. This incorporation has the potential to develop future traffic forecasts that are unreasonable and potentially will lead to poor roadway infrastructure investment decisions. The federal freight flow data contained in the Freight Analysis Framework Version 2.2 (FAF2) Database has the potential to improve the forecast year accuracy, however, use of the database itself is often suspect and the large aggregation level of the database usually makes it impractical. This paper examines a process to systematically improve the forecasted volumes from the FAF2 using local industry sector knowledge to a potential level that is acceptable for urban transportation modeling. A case study is shown using Mobile, AL to demonstrate the process of adjusting the FAF2 data to account for industries located in the community. The paper concludes that with appropriate adjustment and application, the FAF2 database can be used for in forecasting future travel demand in a smaller urban area. 
12th National Conference on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized CommunitiesTransportation Research BoardFederal Highway AdministrationFederal Transit AdministrationWilliamsburg,VA,USA StartDate:20100922 EndDate:20100924 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Federal Highway Administration, Federal Transit Administration - 12th National Conference on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized CommunitiesTransportation Research BoardFederal Highway AdministrationFederal Transit AdministrationWilliamsburg,VA,USA StartDate:20100922 EndDate:20100924 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Federal Highway Administration, Federal Transit Administration, Cation, 

Beavis, P. C. Urban Freight Intermodal Transport: An Analogue Theory Using Electrical Circuits, (2010), 412P.
Abstract - Container seaports co-located with populations in Australian cities generate and attract inexorable, increasing discrete- diffuse flows which lead to landside access constraints and conflicts. Network models in freight transport are deficient in addressing demand management initiatives to ecologically re-structure the landside container freight task. Conventional freight planning stages road building and port expansion to facilitate mobility and container storage, and a vicious, inefficient cycle ensues. The miss-specification of modelling and planning frameworks is due to a conceptualisation of node impedance as a constraint phenomenon rather than as a necessary measure of precision. This thesis pioneers an activity-based approach to theoretically support investigations towards the adoption of urban freight intermodalism. (a) 	 

Chow, Joseph Y. J., Choon Heon Yang and Amelia C. Regan. State-of-the-Art of Freight Forecast Modeling: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead. Transportation: Planning, Policy, Research, Practice 37, no. 6 (2010): pp 1011-1030.
Abstract - The volume of goods shipped by trucks and railroads is expected to continue to increase, making accurate estimations and forecasts of freight movements essential. This paper reviews and evaluates freight forecasting models using California as a case study. The authors suggest several model alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. Although the hybrid model seems promising in its ability to handle the widest range of policy questions and investment decision options, the data requirements would be extensive. Advances in applying data mining techniques to available or easily developed data sources could help overcome this obstacle. However, new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency may be introduced. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-010-9281-1

Deane, Gordon, Ian William, Yan Zhu, John Pharoah, Diana Kabeizi and Bashir Khan. Film - a Model of Freight and Lgv Movements in London,  (2010) 19p.
Abstract - This paper will discuss how a multi-modal freight model has been developed. An innovative feature is its representation of all movements in light goods vehicles (LGVs): (1) commuter travel; (2) service related trips; (3) goods collection & delivery. It forecasts future freight traffic in London to inform TfL’s transport planning decisions up to 2031. The model outputs are freight flows and tonnages by origin and destination, commodity type, logistic stage and transport mode. The model has: 700 zones (400 within the M25 motorway); 6 road freight vehicle types in addition to rail and shipping; and uses 16 commodities split into 3 distribution stages. It uses a spatial input-output model to determine the pattern of demand for freight travel based on the economic structure of the regions of the United Kingdom (UK). The model includes the stages of freight generation, distribution, mode choice and assignment to detailed road and rail networks. The model will be used to examine policy measures that impact within London on freight and logistics services. Its output matrices will also be used as an input to Transport for London (TfL’s) multi-modal model. This model replaces the current simpler freight forecasting tool used by TfL. An innovative feature of this model is its representation of all movements in light goods vehicles (LGVs). LGV traffic has been the major source of growth in traffic (+33%) in Great Britain over the last decade, contrasting with +5% in cars, -7% in HGVs. Within London, LGV traffic has continued to grow, whereas car and HGV traffic have declined in recent years, despite its rapid growth in population and jobs. The three main components of LGV movements are forecast separately within the model: 1) Commuter travel (37% of trips in company owned vans in Great Britain) 2) Service related trips (27% of trips) 3) Goods collection and delivery (32% of trips) Trips for personal purposes within LGVs mainly occur outside working hours and are limited in number and so are of less relevance. The pattern of freight movements within a major conurbation such as London is rather different to the national traffic pattern and so it introduces special modeling requirements. London has a large dynamic service sector and much of the employment within the manufacturing sector is engaged in administrative rather than production of goods activities. We have made innovative use of a variety of data sources to provide the foundations to determine the pattern of production and of consumption of goods within London. The model explicitly distinguishes primary, secondary and tertiary distribution stages for a wide range of individual commodities. For tertiary distribution it represents the multi-drop pattern of collection and delivery that is carried out mainly in LGVs and smaller HGVs. These are quite different in their trip lengths, vehicle types and time of day patterns to the long haul primary movements to distribution centers in and around London that are carried by rail, water or large fully loaded artics. 
European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport - European Transport Conference, 2010Association for European TransportGlasgow,Scotland,United Kingdom StartDate:20101011 EndDate:20101013 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Cation, http://etcproceedings.org/paper/film-a-model-of-freight-and-lgv-movements-in-london

Facanha, Cristiano, Jeffrey Ang-Olson, Louis Browning, Seth Hartley, Andrew Papson and Ed Carr. Evaluation of Methods, Models, and Parameters to Represent Freight in Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Models,  (2010) 17p.
Abstract - The objective of this research is to review and evaluate the current methods, models, and parameters used to generate air emissions information from freight transportation activities and determine its suitability for decision making and public education. This research includes a detailed review of the current state of the practice for estimating freight emissions across all modes, geographic scales, and temporal dimensions. The research catalogs how emissions estimates are used and applied by public and private sector stakeholders. Strengths and weaknesses of current practices, as well as opportunities for improvement including new measurement techniques and data sources are identified. The scope of this research includes all freight modes and all types of air emissions (greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants, and air toxics). The research covers all freight activity in the U.S. The research focuses on estimates of both current/recent freight emissions as well as forecasts of future emissions. 
Transportation Research Board 89th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20100110 EndDate:20100114 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 89th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20100110 EndDate:20100114 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Prasanna, Viktor and Amol Bakshi. Integrated Modeling and Simulation Framework for Freight Transportation in Metropolitan Areas, (2010), 22p.
Abstract - Globalization has led to an increase in the volume of traffic flows by all transportation modes, contributing to congestion, traffic crashes, and pollution in metropolitan areas around ports, rail yards, and airports. The authors note that simulation modeling offers researchers the opportunity to evaluate specific aspects of traffic congestion, but suggest that a framework for integrated traffic modeling and simulation which can support the integration of a multitude of simulation tools is needed to capture the complex transportation problems the country faces, and to improve transportation efficiency and capacity. In this paper, the authors describe a semantic framework for integrated traffic modeling and simulation. A domain ontology acts as the key component enabling model and application integration. This ontology also forms the basis for intuitive user interfaces that allow engineers to refine their solutions. 	 http://www.metrans.org/research/final/08-04%20Final.pdf

Russo, Francesco and Antonio Comi. A Modelling System to Simulate Goods Movements at an Urban Scale. Transportation: Planning, Policy, Research, Practice 37, no. 6 (2010): pp 987-1009.
Abstract - A significant share of traffic in urban areas involves the movement of goods. However, few studies have treated the overall problem of urban freight transportation simulation. This paper has two objectives. First, it seeks to categorize the main classes of urban freight transport measures and to select ad hoc criteria to analyze the main models of urban good movements and logistics in order to verify whether the models are capable of assessing the classified measures ex ante. Second, the paper seeks to identify freight movements in urban and metropolitan areas and relative decision makers, in order to propose an integrated modeling system that allows linkage between final consumer choices and restocking choices made by retailers so that measures to mitigate the negative effects of freight transport can be assessed. Goods movements are examined at two levels: (1) analysis of commodity flows, in terms of quantity, generated by the consumption of commodities; and (2) analysis of commodity flows, in terms of vehicles, due to restocking. The first level allows for the calculation of the goods quantity flows due to consumption and restocking; the second level allows for the determination of the service, vehicles used and target time, as well as the route chosen for restocking sales outlets in order to estimate vehicle flows on the urban/metropolitan transportation network. The proposed modeling system is a multi-step model and considers a disaggregated approach for each decision level. This modeling system can be used as a decision support tool to appraise the impacts of policies concerning urban freight transportation. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-010-9276-y

Samimi, Amir, Abolfazl Mohammadian and Kazuya Kawamura. A Behavioral Freight Movement Microsimulation Model: Method and Data. Transportation Letters: the International Journal of Transportation Research 2, no. 1 (2010).
Abstract - The framework of freight demand modeling has been the conventional four-step approach, in the past. Activity-based models that better capture the behavior and decision-making process are emerging in the passenger travel modeling to address the drawbacks of the four-step approach. This paper proposes an activity-based freight modeling framework and discuses its data needs. The framework consists of five modules: firm generation, supply chain replication, shipment forecasting, logistic decisions, and network analysis. Similar to the activity-based approach in the passenger travel modeling, in which individuals or households are the agents of the models, individual firms or a group of firms with similar characteristics, are the main players in the proposed framework. Public data sources that could be used in the U.S. to make this framework running are also introduced and a supplementary establishment survey is proposed as a cost-effective way to satisfy the data needs of the framework. 	Notes - (Kouros) 

2011	(22)

Anderson, Michael, Mary Catherine Dondapati and Gregory Harris. Effectively Using the Qrfm to Model Truck Trips in Medium-Sized Urban Communities, (2011), 17p.
Abstract - This report analyzes the effectiveness of applying the Quick Response Freight Manual (QRFM) to model freight transportation. Typically freight transportation is modeled indirectly or as an after-thought. Increasing freight volumes, coupled with cost-saving strategies such as just-in-time delivery systems, require that transportation policymakers analyze infrastructure needs and make investment decisions that explicitly include freight volumes as a component. This paper contains a case study using a travel model for a medium-sized urban area and the QRFM trip-generation and distribution methodology to provide a framework for freight planning that can be used to improve resource-allocation decisions. 	 http://utca.eng.ua.edu/files/2011/08/06306-Final-Report.pdf

Baindur, Deepak and Jose Manuel Viegas. An Agent Based Model Concept for Assessing Modal Share in Inter-Regional Freight Transport Markets. Journal of Transport Geography 19, no. 6 (2011): pp 1093-1105.
Abstract - This paper introduces an agent based modeling approach to model inter-urban freight transport between two or more trading regions. The use of the model is to ascertain the modal share of competing transport modes (road and intermodal) while taking complex transport service supply-demand dynamics into account. It is structured by modules describing company generation, supplier choice, modal competition and International road freight transport market dynamics. The behavior of individual actors is simulated using normative agent behavior and market knowledge. Using the micro-simulation approach, shippers and carriers (primarily road haulers and a maritime based intermodal operator) interact through simulated contracts resulting in the generation of tours. The service performance of the tours is fed back into the model for decision making during contract deliberations. Preliminary application of model to Mediterranean case study show that market share gains of around 25-30% are obtained with policy interventions of financial subsidies to intermodal services and more frequent shipping services in the intermodal transport respectively. 	 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692311000536

Bassok, Alon, Edward D. McCormack, Maren L. Outwater and Chilan Ta. Use of Truck Gps Data for Freight Forecasting,  (2011) 13p.
Abstract - Given trucks’ importance in moving freight, relatively little is known about their travel patterns particularly in urban areas. Global positioning systems (GPS) used by trucking companies are a source of truck probe data that is just starting to be utilized for a variety of applications including modeling. The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC), Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), and the University of Washington (UW) have partnered on a research effort to collect and analyze GPS truck data from commercial, in-vehicle, fleet management systems used in the central Puget Sound region. Among other uses, this GPS information, which is in essence a by-product of trucking industry operations, is evaluated for its feasibility to supply quantitative information that will support truck and freight models. Specifically, this paper investigates the ability to use truck GPS data to develop trip generation data. A case study of the grocery store industry is offered to highlight the efficacy of the tool. 
Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Brocker, Johannes, Artem Korzhenevych and Marie-Catherine Riekhof. Predicting Freight Flows in a Globalising World. Research in Transportation Economics 31, no. 1 (2011): pp 37-44.
Abstract - This paper suggests a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are 3 driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe. 	 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B8JHM-51PR0FY-1/2/89ed3c5dd5414baf282c5e9415080d5e

Davidson, P. A New Approach to Transport Modelling: The Stochastic Segmented Slice Simulation (4s) Model and Its Recent Applications,  (2011) 23p.
Abstract - Recently there has been renewed interest in alternative modelling approaches, driven by recognised deficiencies in the traditional four step model. One stream of development has come through improved modelling of individual and household travel scheduling and joint decision making, under the umbrella of tour-based and activity-based modelling. Another stream of development has been improved approaches to discrete choice modelling, and the incorporation of more complex random utility model (RUM) formulations, such as mixed logit. In this paper we present a new multi-modal transport model structure which incorporates many of the elements of these recent developments, but within a formulation that overcomes many of the obstacles associated with moving away from traditional models. In particular, we show that the new 4S model is very computationally efficient, and is extremely flexible and extensible, while having similar data requirements to traditional models. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation with a unified trip generation, destination, mode, route and time-of-day choice. It allows for detailed behavioural modelling including; cycling end of trip facilities, multi-modal freight, road pricing and public transport congestion. We describe the structure of the model and discuss the theory behind it. We then give examples of the application of the model to recent projects in South East Queensland and demonstrate the new types of analysis that can be done with the model. We also demonstrate the efficiency of the model by describing its practical application to the whole of Queensland at the lot-level, and the whole of Australia at the collector-road level. 
Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 34th, 2011, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia StartDate:00000 EndDate:00000 - Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 34th, 2011, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia StartDate:00000 EndDate:00000, Cation, http://www.atrf.info/papers/index.aspx

de Jong, Gerard, Arnaud Burgess, Lori Tavasszy, Robbert Versteegh, Michiel de Bok and Nora Schmorak. Distribution and Modal Split Models for Freight Transport in the Netherlands,  (2011) 18p.
Abstract - Models play a crucial role in the complex realm of policy and decision making in The Netherlands. In an effort to improve the information provided to policy makers and to maximise the added value of the existing instruments and available knowledge and data, the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment decided to work towards a new freight transport model. The first step in the building process is a basic model called BASGOED. This model is meant as fundamental cornerstone for an incremental building process leading to a modular, transparent and flexible set of instruments for policy making in the area of freight transport. For this purpose, BASGOED has been designed as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and data that will also be available in the future. BASGOED will therefore make use of those modules and data from the existing SMILE+ model, that are suitable for the new set-up. This is the case for the Economy Module which provides transport flows in tonnes by commodity type generated and attracted in each zone. New models have been estimated and implemented for distributing these flows to origin-destination pairs and for determining the modal split (road, rail and inland waterways). These two new models will be presented in the paper. Both the distribution and the modal split model are based on the national Dutch freight transport database of 2004 ("Basisbestand Goederenvervoer"). Furthermore, transport distances and transport times from existing uni-modal road, rail and inland waterway transport network models were used as input (also taking account of road access to and egress from train stations and inland ports). The commodity classification used is NSTR1 (10 commodity groups) and the zoning system distinguishes 40 zones in The Netherlands and 29 zones abroad. These models are aggregate models (e.g. the modal split model is an aggregate logit model). A recent revealed preference data base at the disaggregate level, such as a shippers survey or a commodity flow survey is not available in The Netherlands. Various functional forms have been tested for the model specification in both models. This included the specification of transport cost and transport time, but also the influence of border resistance, zone-internal transport, containerisation and the residual influences of specific origin and destination zones or origin-destination combinations. The link between the distribution model and the modal split model is a logsum variable that is calculated over the modes in the modal split model using the coefficients estimated for this model, and then converted to the transport resistance variable in the distribution model. The estimated models were implemented in a computer code in a scientific programming language. Elasticities for changes in time and cost by mode have been calculated using both the estimation data and the implemented model (that also includes transport flows for which only one mode is available). In the model, changes in transport time and cost will not only affect the mode shares, but also the distribution. The paper will discuss the structure of the overall model and of the submodels for distribution and modal split in particular. It will also contain a description of the model inputs and outputs and of the estimation results for different specifications. After this, the elasticities will be reported in the paper, and discussed on the basis of a comparison with the literature (using recent international overview studies of freight transport elasticities some of the authors were involved in). 
European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board - European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3779/confid/17

Feo-Valero, Maria, Leandro Garcia-Menendez and Rodrigo Garrido-Hidalgo. Valuing Freight Transport Time Using Transport Demand Modelling: A Bibliographical Review. Transport Reviews 31, no. 5 (2011): pp 625-651.
Abstract - The value of time for freight transport is of major importance in infrastructure-related cost–benefit analysis and yet its study has been largely neglected when compared with its passenger counterpart. In fact, one of the attributes that could decide the profitability of a project is how much can be saved if freight vehicles use new infrastructure. Despite being the primary benefit of most investments in transport infrastructure, researchers have not yet reached agreement over either the size or the nature of the values of time that should be used when evaluating projects. This article provides a review of the estimation of freight value of time through transport demand modelling and extant empirical evidence on this topic. Similarly, the bibliographic review of studies undertaken has allowed us to pinpoint the most critical issues when modelling freight transport demand and the position of various research teams regarding these aspects. Such issues include identifying the decision-maker, heterogeneity in the transport flows and transport attributes considered by decision-makers. 	 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2011.564330

Guo, Jessica, Walt Raith, Qi Gong and Jason Bittner. Freight Model Improvement Project for Ecwrpc, (2011), 24p.
Abstract - In early 2009, Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT), HNTB and East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Council (ECWRPC) completed the first phase of the Northeast Region Travel Demand Model. While the model includes a truck trip generation based on the quick response freight manual, the model lacks enough truck classification counts and other data to accurately calibrate the model to existing conditions, as well as for future freight demand conditions. Therefore, sufficient data needs to be collected in order to accurately calibrate a model for use in calibrating freight use. This project will calibrate the model through data collection and field verification efforts. This study will provide data to evaluate and improve a model for the truck/freight mode split component of the travel model. Current freight information that could be used to verify and calibrate the model is minimal; therefore, this project will collect the needed data to do so using aerial photography, GIS data, mapping projects, and other data obtained by East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (ECWRPC). The project will complete a land use inventory specific to the freight industry, with documentation and mapping. The research team will also provide staff training and technical assistance. 	 http://www.wistrans.org/cfire/documents/FR_0308.pdf

Hamdouch, Younes. Multi-Period Supply Chain Network Equilibrium with Capacity Constraints and Purchasing Strategies. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 19, no. 5 (2011): pp 803-820.
Abstract - In this paper, the authors propose a capacitated supply chain network equilibrium model in which three tiers of decision makers (manufacturers, retailers and consumers at demand markets) seek to determine their optimal plans over a multi-period planning horizon. Unlike other studies in the extent literature, the authors use a new concept of purchasing strategy to model the strategic behavior of retailers and consumers at demand markets in a capacitated supply chain network. A purchasing strategy denotes an ordered set of manufacturers (or retailers) from which each retailer (or each consumer at a demand market) prefers to purchase a product. They show that the equilibrium conditions governing the multi-period capacitated supply chain network equilibrium problem can be formulated as a variational inequality in terms of strategies and strategic flows. To find a solution to this variational inequality, the authors propose an iterative algorithm that generates strategies for retailers and consumers as required by solving a dynamic program. They prove that the solution set is nonempty and provide a numerical example to illustrate the validity of our model. 	 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X11000313

Harris, Gregory and Michael D. Anderson. Using Aggregated Federal Data to Model Freight in a Medium-Size Community,  (2011),Transportation Research Board,  pp 45-46.
Abstract - The efficient movement of freight within and through a region is vital to its growth and economic development. Transportation planning involves the development of travel demand models to support a region’s infrastructure investment decisions, but modeling professionals face limitations in obtaining accurate freight data. This problem originates from issues with gathering and utilizing data that are at the appropriate granularity. Freight data at the local level are considered proprietary and companies are reluctant to share. One approach in overcoming this limitation is to use a nonproprietary, national freight flow database. However, the high level of aggregation of the national freight flow data presents challenges for determining freight movements at the substate level. The publicly available data have to be supplemented by local information to provide reliable transportation demand forecasts suitable for planning purposes. Investigating future freight flows requires a deep understanding of the economic and industrial base of a region. For Alabama, this includes major manufacturing industries, agriculture, logging, and mining. Retailing, wholesaling, and warehousing activity also creates freight traffic. The base year for the economic database is 2002, the year corresponding to the Freight Analysis Framework 2 (FAF2) and also when the U.S. Census Bureau surveyed industries for its series of state economic censuses. 
Commodity Flow Survey WorkshopTransportation Research BoardResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20101116 EndDate:20101116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Research and Innovative Technology Administration - Commodity Flow Survey WorkshopTransportation Research BoardResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20101116 EndDate:20101116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Cation, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec158.pdf

Holguin-Veras, Jose, Miguel Jaller, Lisa Destro, Xuegang Ban, Catherine Lawson and Herbert S. Levinson. Freight Generation, Freight Trip Generation, and Perils of Using Constant Trip Rates. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2224 (2011): pp 68-81.
Abstract - Several findings call into question current practices. The chief conclusion is that the accuracy of freight generation (FG) and freight trip generation (FTG) models depends on the consistency between the model’s structure and actual FG-FTG patterns, the degree of internal heterogeneity of the economic and land use aggregation used to estimate the model, and the appropriateness of the spatial aggregation procedure used to obtain the desired FG-FTG estimates. Relative to model structure, the paper establishes strong reasons to treat FG and FTG as separate concepts, because the latter is the output of logistic decisions, whereas the former is determined by the economics of production and consumption. The connection between business size variables—for example, employment—and FG is relatively strong because they are economic input factors, whereas the one with FTG is weaker because inventory and transportation costs come into play. Thus it is generally not correct to assume proportionality between FTG and business size or to assume that using constant FTG rates could be problematic. For instance, only 18% of the industry sectors in New York City exhibit constant FTG rates per employee. For economic and land use aggregation, the finer the level of detail the better, as independent variables have a better chance to explain FG-FTG. In the case of spatial aggregation, the correct aggregation procedure depends on the underlying disaggregate model. For a FG-FTG model to work well, both economic and land use and spatial aggregations must be appropriate. 	Notes - (Jeff) http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2224-09

Hunt, John Douglas, Tara J. Weidner, Rebecca Knudson, Alex Oban Bettinardi and Erin Wardell. Applying the Swim2 Integrated Model in Freight Planning in Oregon,  (2011) 10p.
Abstract - The Oregon Department of Transportation has been developing a statewide long-range plan for freight movement that concerns infrastructure investment and policy options. Concerns about economic uncertainty led to an emphasis on analysis of options under a range of alternative futures. The second generation Oregon StateWide Integrated Model (SWIM2) was used to support this analysis. SWIM2 is a spatial economic model system that includes representation of the transportation, economic and land use systems and their interactions. It is the product of continuing work on transportation model improvement underway in Oregon. In this practical work, it was used to provide information to the planning committee on alternative scenarios for the period up to 2030, considering impacts of different levels of growth in economic activity by economic sector and different ranges of transportation costs on the suitability of infrastructure investment options and on the distribution of economic benefits. The focus of the planning work was expanded substantially from what it would have been without the SWIM2 inputs, allowing consideration of a much wider range of impacts on the transportation system and on both the magnitude and distribution of economic benefits. Concerns about the risk of plans becoming inappropriate under potential economic futures were addressed. The potential impacts of substantial changes in transportation costs were considered. A tool developed for visualizing model outputs with a flexible query system and pre-established graphical formats provided to be very useful in this practical setting. 
Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Jin, T. G., M. Saito and D. L. Eggett. Commodity Flow Estimation Models Incorporating Land Use Characteristics and Economic Factors,  (2011) pp 435-446.
Abstract - This paper describes how reliably forecasting of freight demand has become essential in freight transportation management in order to systematically plan for future transportation facility needs. The paper shows how land use is one of the key factors that affect commodity flow. Other factors include location factors, physical factors, operational factors, dynamic factors such as seasonal variations in demand and changes in customers’ tastes, and pricing factors. Modeling commodity flows with land use is one possible first step; however, it has some limitations because land use data lacks detailed information on economic activities, in particular land use. Therefore, models that use land use characteristics instead of aggregate land use type data were developed in this paper using the commodity flow data available from the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey and other data available to the public via the Internet. These models were used to estimate commodity flow in 2007 and their estimates were compared with commodity flow values found in the 2007 Commodity Flow Survey. Results of this comparison showed that the models could produce good estimates of commodity flows and are of practical use because the model’s input data are available free via the Internet. 
17th International Conference on Urban Transport and the EnvironmentWessex Institute of TechnologyWIT Transactions on the Built EnvironmentPisa,Italy StartDate:20110606 EndDate:20110608 Sponsors:Wessex Institute of Technology, WIT Transactions on the Built Environment - 17th International Conference on Urban Transport and the EnvironmentWessex Institute of TechnologyWIT Transactions on the Built EnvironmentPisa,Italy StartDate:20110606 EndDate:20110608 Sponsors:Wessex Institute of Technology, WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, Cation, 

Liu, Qing and Denver Tolliver. How to Utilize and Improve Commodity Flow Databases in National Supply Chain Model,  (2011),Transportation Research Board,  pp 36-37.
Abstract - This study utilizes Freight Analysis Framework–Commodity Flow Survey (FAF–CFS) databases to determine a typology or systematic classification of supply chains and their relationships to commodity flows. Freight flow models like FAF predict freight flows among regions based on commodity forecasts. The commodity forecasts and predicted flows may reflect many different supply chains—some global and some domestic. A better understanding of supply chain factors will help in understanding the forces underlying trade and product flows and mapping commodity forecasts to interregional freight flows. 
Commodity Flow Survey WorkshopTransportation Research BoardResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20101116 EndDate:20101116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Research and Innovative Technology Administration - Commodity Flow Survey WorkshopTransportation Research BoardResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20101116 EndDate:20101116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Cation, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec158.pdf

Lyk-Jensen, Stephanie Vincent. Forecasting Freight Flows. Transport Reviews 31, no. 5 (2011): pp 603-624.
Abstract - Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment. This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems. 	 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2011.566984

Novak, David C. Nationwide Freight Generation Models : A Spatial Regression Approach. Networks and spatial economics (Online) 11, no. 1 (2011): p. [23]-41.
	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11067-008-9079-2

Nuzzolo, Agostino, Umberto Crisalli and Antonio Comi. Freight Policy Development: An Import-Export Transport Demand Model for the Italian Case,  (2011) 14p.
Abstract - This paper presents a system of models for the estimation of international (import/export) freight flows by using a partial share approach. It allows the authors to simulate generation (for export), attraction (for import), distribution and modal split steps for the estimation of Origin-Destination matrices in quantities for different transportation modes. Aiming at predicting long term effects, the modelling system has been specified through easy-to-capture variables represented by level-of-service attributes and aggregate socio-economic variables, such as GDP and employee number. The modelling system was calibrated by means of data available from Italian and international organizations (e.g., Italian Institute of Statistics, EuroStat, World Trade Organisation, and Institute for the International Commerce). 
European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board - European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3778/confid/17

Nuzzoloa, Agostino, Umberto Crisallia and Antonio Comia. A Restocking Tour Model for the Estimation of O-D Freight Vehicle in Urban Areas. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences 20,  (2011): pp 140-149.
Abstract - This paper presents some calibration developments of a system of models for the simulation of freight restocking journeys within urban areas. The model system allows us to define freight vehicle Origin-Destination (O-D) matrices. The journeys for restocking urban retail activities are modeled through the definition of the trip-chain order and the choice of the delivery location. The modeling system has been calibrated and validated on a dataset of more than 500 truck driver interviews carried out in the city center of Rome. 	 http://pdn.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MiamiImageURL&_cid=277811&_user=10&_pii=S1877042811013991&_check=y&_origin=article&_zone=toolbar&_coverDate=31-Dec-2011&view=c&originContentFamily=serial&wchp=dGLzVlB-zSkzV&md5=9d23af94f46e70208247f1b2d12a2d47/1-s2.0-S1877042811013991-main.pdf

Piotte, Jeremy and Bart Jourquin. An Agent Based Dynamic Road Freight Transport Demand Generation,  (2011) 14p.
Abstract - Competition between freight and passenger transport for the use of the road infrastructure is an increasingly important problem. This research is carried out in the framework of the DIDAM (Disaggregated demand and assignment models for combined passengers and freight transport) research project which aims at proposing some advances in fundamental research in transportation modelling and analysis, and this paper presents some preliminary results obtained on the Belgian network. The DIDAM project's methodology is organized around two axes: on one hand, a disaggregated dynamic demand model for freight transport is proposed. In this model, the freight transport actors are represented by agents. These agents are extracted from existing databases and their behavior is then generated by means of a simulation that tries to represent the interactions between shippers and carriers who both try to minimize their costs. The carriers try to fill their trucks and to combine several trips to maximize their benefits (by minimizing the empty-trips for example). This step of the model faces a well-known optimization problem called "Traveling Salesman Problem" (TSP). In the meanwhile the shippers try to find the best transport opportunity by putting the carriers into competition. On the other hand, the Belgian road network is represented in a GIS based transport model software developed at FUCaM and called NODUS. Each arc of the network is associated with a dynamic cost function built using standard OD matrices for passenger transport combined with global traffic density data. By doing this, one takes into account the passenger flows everywhere and at every moment of the day. That way, the rush-hours are also taken into account. These dynamic cost functions are then used by the transporter-agents of the simulation that tries to minimize their costs. A time-dependent OD matrix for freight transport is built as result from this process. Finally, a prototype of a joint traffic assignment model is being developed. This new assignment procedure assigns the flow for each time-slice sequentially, keeping the still running flows from previous time slices into account. Still under development, this algorithm should provide the agents a feedback on their traveling time, which could be retained to allow them to change their habits if needed during a next trip. This paper will first present the time-dependent freight origin-destination matrices generation process, discussing the agent's generation, their characteristics and the implementation of their behavior in a simulation. Finally, the first time-dependent freight transport OD matrices built on the basis of this methodology will be assigned on the Belgian network using the experimental assignment model. 
European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board - European Transport Conference 2011Association for European TransportTransportation Research BoardGlasgow,Scotland StartDate:20111010 EndDate:20111012 Sponsors:Association for European Transport, Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/3712/confid/17

Tavasszy, Lorant, Michiel Minderhoud, Theo Notteboom and Jean-Francois Perrin. A Strategic Network Choice Model for Global Container Flows: Specification, Estimation and Application. Journal of Transport Geography 19, no. 6 (2011): pp 1163-1172.
Abstract - Container flows have been booming for decades. Expectations for the 21st century are less certain due to changes in climate and energy policy, increasing congestion and increased mobility of production factors. This paper presents a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale in order to analyse possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of transport policies thereon. The model predicts yearly container flows over the world's shipping routes and passing through 437 container ports around the world, based on trade information to and from all countries, taking into account more than 800 maritime container liner services. The model includes import, export and transhipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows. The model was calibrated against observed data and is able to reproduce port throughput statistics rather accurately. The paper also introduces a scenario analysis to understand the impact of future, uncertain developments in container flows on port throughput. The scenarios include the effects of slow steaming, an increase in land based shipping costs and an increased use of large scale infrastructures such as the Trans-Siberian rail line and the opening of Arctic shipping routes. These scenarios provide an indication of the uncertainty on the expected port throughputs, with a particular focus on the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. 	 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692311000524
West, Robert, Douglas Rubin and Juan Carlos Villa. "Identification and Evaluation of Freight Demand Factors." 159p: Transportation Research Board, 2011.

Zhang, Lei and Chenfeng Xiong. Multi-Modal Inter-Regional Travel Demand Estimation,  (2011) 20[p.
Abstract - Since the passage of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) in 1991, a significant number of state highway agencies have started to develop and implement statewide travel demand models to meet policy and legislative development needs. Current and future multimodal freight flows are available from the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF), to analyze national freight policy. On the passenger travel front, however, multimodal inter-regional travel demand data are still lacking while most statewide models fail to model the long-distance trips. The lack of this multimodal passenger inter-regional travel demand data limits the ability to conduct quantitative analysis for infrastructure investment and operational effectiveness needs at the national/statewide level. Drawing from previous academic research and practical projects around the world, this paper reviews several methodologies for multimodal inter-regional travel demand estimation at the national level. This international research scan is also crucial for the development of statewide travel demand models by supplementing all the currently available syntheses of domestic practices with a more international scope. The nations with their models reviewed by this paper share many similarities with a typical U.S. state, such as population, geographical scale, and the need for studying long-distance trips and other policy-oriented analyses, which further adds up the necessity of this review. Alternative approaches toward a national/statewide multi-modal inter-regional travel analysis tool, as well as the data limitations and improvement strategies are discussed. 
Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20110123 EndDate:20110127 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

2012	(19)

Alstadt, Brian and Jeff Coughlin. Driving the Train: Macro-Based Framework for Commodity Forecasting. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2288 (2012): pp 19–27.
Abstract - Patterns of freight movement result from economic exchange. That is, buying and selling activities along complex global supply chains drive infrastructure-level demand. Yet commodity forecasting techniques used in freight plans and port studies frequently ignore these broad drivers. The fundamental thesis of this paper is that the macro level—the global macroeconomic perspective—is increasingly important to making reasonable freight projections at the micro level—the infrastructure level. This paper therefore has two goals. First, it briefly reviews the state of the practice in freight forecasting and ultimately concludes that the macro level is noticeably absent in most forecasting methods and reviewed studies. Second, the paper presents a method of generating county-level commodity forecasts that embody macro drivers and trends. Specifically, the approach ties together three critical pieces of information: (a) a county-based social accounting structure representing detailed factors of economic supply and demand; (b) a set of domestic macroeconomic forecasts providing future industry-by-industry production trends that recognizes spatial growth patterns, changing technology, relative industry growth, and broad forces affecting final demand; and (c) a forecast of U.S. international trade, recognizing differential economic growth of trading partners as well as pressures from international competition and currency fluctuations. The result of this methodology is county-level trade forecasts (in dollars) that are analytically (not statistically) tied to macroeconomic growth trends. These forecasts can be used alone for sketch or policy-level analysis, or they can be combined with meso- and micro-level information and models for comprehensive freight forecasting at the infrastructure level. The method presented is being implemented in the Transportation Economic Development Impact System, a web-based analysis system used in planning major transportation investments in the United States and Canada. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2288-03

Bujanda, Arturo, Juan Carlos Villa and Jon Williams. Development of Statewide Freight Flow Assignment with Freight Analysis Framework: Learning from Case Study on International Trade Corridors in Texas. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2285 (2012): pp 155–166.
Abstract - This research presents a methodology for estimating freight flows along corridors serving international trade. A methodology for disaggregating regional flows from the FHWA Freight Analysis Framework (FAF3) to the state level was developed and applied to the state of Texas. To keep international trade moving in a timely and efficient manner, it is important to have accurate information identifying and anticipating capacity shortfalls and congestion nodes. As trade levels increase, the strain on existing infrastructure serving international trade only worsens; therefore, this information is important for improving strategic investment decisions. Findings from the literature are presented about the FAF3 structure and existing methodologies to estimate freight flows at statewide and regional levels. A methodology was developed to disaggregate national FAF3 data and then to assign and estimate the tons of international freight flows through statewide roadways and railroads. The international trade corridors in Texas are used as a case study to apply the methodology and estimate current and future freight demand. Results from the case study demonstrate encouraging findings about this methodology. Conclusions and recommendations to refine and improve this methodology and the FAF3 are provided. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2285-18

Cantillo, Victor Manuel, Miguel Angel Jaller and Jose Holguin-Veras. Development of National Freight Demand Model with Limited Data and Resources,  (2012) 13p.
Abstract - This paper proposes a freight demand modeling framework with minimum data requirements that is suitable for developing countries, where there is lack of complete freight data or the resources to conduct comprehensive freight demand data collection efforts. The framework is developed as a variant of the four step modeling process with additional steps to estimate traffic flows from freight flows and to consider empty trips. The steps required for the practical implementation of the framework for the case of the Country of Colombia are discussed. For each step, data, data sources and modeling methodologies used are described. A description is provided about the data limitations and the measures taken to complement the available data. From the implementation, the authors identify a set of advantages derived from the modeling approaches considered and suggestions for improvement. 
Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Carrion, Migdalia, Claire Guzman, Dan Seedah, Jolanda Prozzi and C. Michael Walton. User Manual for the Relational Multimodal Freight Database, (2012), 17p.
Abstract - This document was developed as part of Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) project 0-6297 entitled: Freight Planning Factors Impacting Texas Commodity Flows. The research team developed a Relational Multimodal Freight Database that can capture relevant publicly-available freight variables required for updating TxDOT freight models and studies. From the Multimodal Freight Database, TxDOT is able to identify any missing data that the public databases do not capture. The missing data can be obtained through purchasing a commercial database or by collecting the relevant data. This user manual provides step-by-step guidance on how to use the TxDOT Relational Multimodal Freight Database Software, as well as information on how the database was developed, and the public databases from which the data were extracted. 	 http://library.ctr.utexas.edu/digitized/products/0-6297-P3_UserManual.pdf

Chinnam, Ratna Babu and Alper E. Murat. Enhancing Jit Freight Logistics Impacted by Transportation System Projects under Its, (2012), 18p.
Abstract - The authors developed an analysis methodology to support effective planning of JIT freight logistics in transportation networks impacted by system improvement projects. Currently, shippers and carriers do not have the necessary tools to predict and account for the traffic congestion impact of construction projects. Existing models used by shippers/carriers rely on historical traffic flow/congestion data from ITS and other sources. There is need for predictive tools that can be used for assessing the congestion and traffic flow impact of construction projects. These predictive tools are integrated within route planning models of shippers/carriers. The authors designed practical, scalable tools that use readily available and up to date traffic flow data from ITS operators such as Traffic.com and Michigan Intelligent Transportation Systems (MITS) Center. The flow data is used to estimate OD matrices at the source/sink nodes of the network under consideration. Given the transportation improvement project scope and extent/corridor, the authors use estimated OD matrices for estimation of the future state of network traffic flows through equilibrium/traffic assignment models. The methods are designed for seamless integration into existing JIT freight planning models/tools. 	 http://mioh-utc.udmercy.edu/research/sc-42/pdf/MIOH_UTC_SC42_2012-Final_Rpt_Enhancing_JIT_Freight_Logistics_etc.pdf
http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/46000/46000/46007/MIOH_UTC_SC42_2012-Final_Rpt_Enhancing_JIT_Freight_Logistics_etc.pdf
http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/46000/46100/46121/MIOH_UTC_SC42_2012-Final_Rpt_Enhancing_JIT_Freight_Logistics_etc.pdf

Chow, Joseph Y. J. and Stephen G. Ritchie. A Freight Transshipment Network Model for Forecasting Commodity and Cyclic Commercial Vehicle Flows,  (2012) 30p.
Abstract - A freight forecast model that assigns commodity flows to cyclic commercial vehicles is proposed in this study. The commercial vehicles are formulated to traverse in cycles and include loading and unloading costs at zone centroids. Empty hauls can be tracked, as can transshipment flows by commodity type and by inbound and outbound modes. A linear programming formulation is proposed as well as nonlinear objectives for link and transshipment congestion. An inverse nonlinear programming approach using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions is formulated to calibrate the congestion parameters of this model such that observed flow variables are optimal. Because the forward problem is convex and composed of only equality or non-negativity constraints, it can be readily solved with classical nonlinear optimization methods instead of treating the inverse problem as a nonlinear complementarity problem. The models are tested on a 6-node network with up to 54 transshipment activities. The model is shown to be sensitive to supply side changes on links and transshipment facilities or to fuel cost changes. The appendix includes an inverse traffic assignment problem using the inverse nonlinear programming method. 
Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Ferguson, Mark, Hanna Maoh, Justin Ryan, Pavlos Kanaroglou and Taha Hossein Rashidi. Transferability and Enhancement of a Microsimulation Model for Estimating Urban Commercial Vehicle Movements. Journal of Transport Geography 24,  (2012): pp 358-369.
Abstract - This study examines the transferability of a microsimulation framework to estimate the movements of commercial vehicles in urban areas. The authors build on the pioneering efforts of Hunt and Stefan (2007) from Calgary, Alberta by considering three types of movements: tour-based; fleet allocator; and internal/external. Some sub-models from Calgary are transferred, while others are newly developed. The framework is implemented and validated for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) as a case study. A list of 185,790 records of individual business establishments in the GTHA was acquired from InfoCanada to conduct the microsimulations. The achieved results are promising with favorable correlations between observed and simulated commercial vehicle flows. The authors conclude that the modeling framework from Calgary can be transferred and used to depict the travel patterns of commercial vehicle movements in other urban areas. This can be beneficial when refined and costly data are unavailable to study urban commercial vehicle movements. 	 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692312001251

Guo, Jessica Y. and Qi Gong. Understanding and Modeling Freight Stakeholder Behavior, (2012), 76p.
Abstract - This project developed a conceptual model of private-sector freight stakeholder decisions and interactions for forecasting freight demands in response to key policy variables. Using East Central Wisconsin as a study area, empirical models were developed for selected elements of this conceptual model that are fundamentally significant to the production/attraction, spatial distribution, and modal split of freight movements. The empirical results formulated the recommendations to the East Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (ECWRPC) on freight planning and demand model enhancement. 	 http://wisdotresearch.wi.gov/wp-content/uploads/WisDOT-Policy-Research-0092-09-22-final-report.pdf
http://www.wistrans.org/cfire/documents/FR_0206.pdf
http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/46000/46100/46140/WisDOT-Policy-Research-0092-09-22-final-report.pdf
http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/46000/46500/46556/FR_0206.pdf

Holguin-Veras, Jose and Miguel Jaller. Comprehensive Freight Demand Data Collection Framework for Large Urban Areas,  (2012) 18p.
Abstract - The paper analyses the characteristics and unique features of the freight system, the data requirements of the different modeling techniques and the roles of various data collection procedures. The analyses produced a set of findings of relevance to the design of a comprehensive freight data collection framework for large urban areas. The paper builds on these findings to identify a modular data collection framework that would enable transportation agencies to mix and match data collection efforts to match their needs and constraints. 
Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 
Holguin-Veras, Jose, Miguel Jaller, Ivan Sanchez-Diaz, Jeffrey Wojtowicz, Shama Campbell, Herbert Levinson, Catherine Lawson, Erica Levine Powers and Lorant Tavasszy. "Freight Trip Generation and Land Use." 165p: Transportation Research Board, 2012.

Jin, Thomas G., Mitsuru Saito and Dennis L. Eggett. Developing County-Level Commodity-Flow Models Incorporating Land-Use Characteristics and Economic Factors for Utah. Journal of Urban Planning and Development 138, no. 1 (2012): pp 35-42.
Abstract - Reliably forecasting freight demand has become essential in freight transportation management to systematically plan for future transportation facility needs. Commodity-based freight demand modeling techniques have been in the mainstream because these techniques overcome the weakness of applying a typical four-step demand forecasting modeling process to freight transportation and capture more accurately the fundamental economic mechanisms that drive freight movement. However, none of the existing models actively use commodity-flow data that have become available to public through the Internet in the past decade. The authors used such data and found good correlation between commodity-flow and aggregate land use type in a previous study. However, it was found that aggregate land-use type data were not readily available to public. Instead, data that describe characteristics of particular land-use such as employment data, business pattern data, and wage data were readily available. Hence, models that use land-use characteristics instead of aggregate land-use type data were developed in this study by using the commodity-flow data available from the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey conducted by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, and by using other data available to the public through the Internet. These models were used to estimate commodity flow in 2007, and their estimates were compared with commodity-flow values found in the 2007 Commodity Flow Survey. Results of this comparison showed that the models could produce decent estimates of commodity flow at the county level and be of practical use because the model inputs are available free through the Internet. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000093

Kawamura, Kazuya and Daniel Miodonski. Examination of the Relationship between Built Environment Characteristics and Retail Freight Delivery,  (2012) 13p.
Abstract - This study examines the relationship between various built environment factors and the amount of freight consumed by final consumers while controlling for socioeconomic variables. Using non-parametric inferential technique and also regression were applied to the survey data from two urban areas in Texas. Tonnage delivered to each Census tract was estimated The analysis found that, in general, stronger associations between the built environment variables and the response variable are observed when commodity weights are measured using the buffer. Also the findings are affected by the statistical method used. The amount of retail goods delivered per person seems to decrease with household density, which may suggest that living in a compact dwelling unit has an effect of reducing goods consumption. 
Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Lawson, Catherine T., José Holguín-Veras, Iván Sánchez-Díaz, Miguel Jaller, Shama Campbell and Erica Levine Powers. Estimated Generation of Freight Trips Based on Land Use. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2269 (2012): pp 65-72.
Abstract - The effects of land use and business size (quantified as number of employees) on freight trip generation were analyzed. Standard trip generation rates, ordinary least squares, and multiple classification analysis were applied to a New York City data set. Three land use classification codes—the City of New York zoning resolution (NYCZR), the Land-Based Classification Standards (LBCS), and the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) manual—were used. The authors developed models for NYCZR and function and activity of LBCS and used the ITE manual’s trip rates. Root mean square error analysis was used to compare the performance of these models. It was found that models for NYCZR and LBCS land use classification codes provide better alternatives to ITE trip rates because they give more accurate estimates of freight trip attraction, cover a wider range of land use classifications, and are exclusively for freight trip attraction. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2269-08

Liedtke, Gernot and Hanno Friedrich. Generation of Logistics Networks in Freight Transportation Models. Transportation: Planning, Policy, Research, Practice 39, no. 6 (2012): pp 1335-1351.
Abstract - A logistics network is the set of nodes and transportation connections that is subject to the planning process of an individual firm. This paper examines the concept of a logistics network in the context of behavioral freight transportation modeling. Beginning with the basic definition of networks, the different perceptions of networks in transportation science and logistics are developed. Logistics networks represent a stratum of the real economic system situated between the micro level (commodity flows) and the macro level (vehicle flows) of the transport system, and this micro-macro gap is a main challenge in freight transport modeling. The micro-macro gap is explained by the existence of logistics networks on a meso level. A taxonomy of modeling methods dealing with logistics networks is defined. This taxonomy is based on two characteristics: the changeability of networks within models and the form of cost functions mapped. Different possible modeling methods and their application in existing freight transport models are discussed for each category, especially variable logistics networks. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-012-9386-9

Müller, Stephan, Axel Wolfermann and Stefan Huber. A Nation-Wide Macroscopic Freight Traffic Model,  (2012),Elsevier Science,  pp 221-230.
Abstract - It has long since been recognised that it is insufficient to estimate freight flows as a part of passenger transport models. However, there is still no established standard for dedicated commercial traffic models, like there is in private traffic. A reason can be seen in the complexity of the topic and in the scarcity of representative data. In order to bridge this gap, available data has to be put to its best use. Models which are able to take all the complexity of logistics into account will have to be limited to narrow fields (i.e. a restricted area, one transport mode, one commodity group or such) due to the high expectations towards data quality. Furthermore, a generally applicable model will have to be based on simplified assumptions. This contribution describes a general, scalable, multimodal freight flow model. The model is developed as a 6-Step-Model for the area of Germany for the spatial level of NUTS 1. It also links with all European countries as aggregated traffic zones (NUTS 0). Global trade is connected through seaports and airports. Within the model 60 business branches are distinguished that are related to the transport of 20 type of goods (NST 2007). The multimodal approach allows a choice of 12 means of transport on road, rail or inland waterways. Furthermore, the model also distinguishes between loaded and empty runs. The model is intended to calculate freight flows on a large scale. Scenario techniques can be used to forecast the freight flows based on changes in conditions of all sorts, e.g. economic developments, employment structures, spatial development. This development in modelling extends the knowledge in the use of the existing data, the understanding of them in relation to the description of commercial traffic and is an important step in large scale freight traffic modelling. 
15th Meeting of the EURO Working Group on TransportationEuropean Working Group on Transportation (EWGT)Paris,France StartDate:20120910 EndDate:20120913 Sponsors:European Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) - 15th Meeting of the EURO Working Group on TransportationEuropean Working Group on Transportation (EWGT)Paris,France StartDate:20120910 EndDate:20120913 Sponsors:European Working Group on Transportation (EWGT), Cation, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.741
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042812042036

Munuzuri, Jesus, Pablo Cortes, Luis Onieva and Jose Guadix. Estimation of Daily Vehicle Flows for Urban Freight Deliveries. Journal of Urban Planning and Development 138, no. 1 (2012): pp 43-52.
Abstract - Given its contribution to congestion, pollution, and energy consumption and the complex and changing characteristics of delivery routes, the modeling of urban freight transport is a difficult, highly data-demanding and often unreliable task. Extending other previous works that focused only on the morning peak hour, the authors have developed a trip generation model by using the available data to their maximum extent and adding other parameters that can be found through simple surveys. This trip generation model is then included as part of a four-stage process, with the trip distribution solved through entropy maximization and resulting in the estimation of an origin-destination matrix for freight transport in a city. The application to a case study in the city of Seville and the validation with on-street vehicle counts shows reasonably robust results and provides a simple and effective tool to analyze urban freight deliveries from a macroscopic point of view. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000099

Pan, Qisheng, Peter Gordon, James E. Moore, Harry Richardson, Jiyoung Park, Joongkoo Cho, SooHyun Cho, Sung-Ho Ryu and Eunha Jun. Estimating Effects of Highway Infrastructure Failure on Freight Flows for U.S. Highway Network,  (2012) 33p.
Abstract - National highway infrastructures, especially highway bridges and tunnels, are vulnerable to structural deficiency due to time-linked deterioration, natural disasters, or terrorist attacks. The collapse of the Interstate 35W highway bridge during a rush-hour period in Minneapolis in 2007 was a warning to planners and decision makers about the safety of highway bridges and possible negative effects on highway network performance and the local economy. However, it is still a puzzle how the collapse of a link of the highway infrastructure will impact freight flows at both regional and national levels. This study extends the regional freight transportation models for Southern California to analyze interregional and interstate freight flows. It utilizes data from Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) and implements an extended freight model to establish baseline freight flows on the national highway network. It also creates scenarios for two hypothetical bridge failures over the Mississippi River in multiple states, including Louisiana, Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi, to estimate the economic impacts of highway infrastructure failure as well as a hypothetical tunnel closure in Colorado on freight transportation costs, as measured by increased times and distances. 
Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 91st Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20120122 EndDate:20120126 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Xia, Xiao-mei and Xiao-dan Ma. A Multimodal Multi-Product Transportation Network Model for Strategic Planning of Freight Flows,  (2012) pp 197-202.
Abstract - The prediction of multi-commodity freight which flows over a multimodal network has attracted increased interest in recent years. Methods used to model freight transportation demand can be categorized into two general types: spatial price equilibrium and network equilibrium. With a simplistic representation of the transportation network, spatial price equilibrium methods were used to model interregional freight flows. These models determine the flow between production and consumption regions by using demand and supply functions. The most efficient use of the transportation infrastructure is to transport the freight at least total cost. This paper regards the spatial price equilibrium and network equilibrium as a model based on super network and gives the solution algorithm. The objective is to offer a method to forecast the transportation demand and the freight flows on the transportation network at most profit. As an application, the model is used to analyze freight flow on Wenzhou transportation network with STAN. 
Inernational Conference of Logistics Engineering and Management 2012Southwest Jiaotong UniversityAmerican Society of Civil EngineersChengdu,China StartDate:20121008 EndDate:20121010 Sponsors:Southwest Jiaotong University, American Society of Civil Engineers - Inernational Conference of Logistics Engineering and Management 2012Southwest Jiaotong UniversityAmerican Society of Civil EngineersChengdu,China StartDate:20121008 EndDate:20121010 Sponsors:Southwest Jiaotong University, American Society of Civil Engineers, Cation, http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784412602.0032

You, Soyoung Iris and Stephen G. Ritchie. Tour Behavior of Clean Drayage Trucks in Southern California,  (2012) 18p.
Abstract - In recent years a Clean Trucks Program (CTP) has been enacted at California's San Pedro Bay Ports (SPBP) of Long Beach and Los Angeles, to help address major environmental issues associated with port operations. "Clean trucks" (meeting 2007 model year emission standards) that utilized public funds to replace older, polluting drayage trucks were required to be fitted with GPS units for compliance monitoring. In late 2010, 94% of cargo moves at SPBP were reportedly made by clean trucks. The study reported in this paper is based on a year of such GPS data for a sample that in December, 2010 comprised 545 clean drayage trucks. Drayage trucks carry port cargo (mostly containers) to and from the ports and intermodal rail and transloading facilities (drayage trucks have at least one trip end on port or intermodal rail facility property). An analytical framework is introduced for processing the GPS data from these trucks to both interpret the trip chaining or tour behavior of clean drayage trucks, and to prepare sufficient tour data for clean truck modeling at the SPBP. It is found that SPBP clean trucks make an average of 3.1-3.9 stops per tour, depending on the open or closed nature of the tour, fuel type and monthly cargo type. Furthermore, newer diesel trucks tend to travel further and longer than liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks, and monthly cargo volume changes have an effect on clean truck tour behaviors. An important finding is that clean trucks at the SPBP rely on daily-based operations and one day of travel behavior is not necessarily representative of any other day. These insights into clean truck behavior at the SPBP potentially provide more accurate depictions of current conditions and better projections of future conditions for freight related improvement plans and models. 
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2013	(12)

Anand, Nilesh R., J. H. R. van Duin and Lori A. Tavasszy. Smurfs: Situated Multiagent Urban Freight System,  (2013) 14p.
Abstract - Characteristic of urban freight domain such as distributed decision making, dynamic interactions, emergence system behavior as well as weaknesses of current policy making methods demand a new approach to the city logistics domain modeling. It demands an approach which can simulate the details of continuously changing city logistics characteristic in efficient way and coin emergent behaviour of the dynamically changing city logistics activities. This methodology should be able to help understand undergoing changes of system which in turn create knowledge base about the system and its emergent behavioral processes for generating appropriate solutions of the problems associated with distributed decision making. This paper describes the modelling of city logistics covering strategic and tactical decision at logistic level whilst operation decision at distribution level using agent technology. The paper attempts to show the potential of agent technology in evaluating policy measures to reduce negative effects of city logistics domain. The architecture of the model enables the understanding of decentralized decision making of urban freight stakeholders and provides the decision makers with a useful tool to assess holistically the impacts of policies related to urban freight domain. Moreover, with modularity and extendibility it is possible to expand the model for real-life scenario. 
Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20130113 EndDate:20130117 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20130113 EndDate:20130117 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 
Chase, Keith M., Patrick Anater and Thomas Phelan. "Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement." 90p: Transportation Research Board, 2013.
Chase, Keith M., Patrick Anater and Thomas Phelan. "Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan." 55p: Transportation Research Board, 2013.

de Souza, Cristiane Duarte Ribeiro and Marcio de Almeida D'Agosto. Four-Step Model Applied for Freight Transportation Planning. Journal of Transport Literature 7, no. 2 (2013): pp 207-234.
Abstract - This paper aims to analyze existing studies on freight transport planning that use the four step model, a tool that estimates inter-zonal traffic flows considering trip generation and distribution, modal choice and flow allocation; highlighting its comprehensiveness and usefulness in supporting the country’s socioeconomic development. A literature review was performed in indexed journals, theses, dissertations and technical reports, selecting 44 papers and highlighting 7 papers that fully focus on the four step model. It was verified that this model is versatile and can be used in full or partially; considering mass or vehicle flows, the latter being directly applicable to the design of traffic infrastructure; at all levels of geographical coverage (from municipalities to countries); and without limitations on the type of freight that can be transported by any of the five modes of transport or their combinations. Therefore, this model is a strategic planning tool and a support for the socioeconomic development of the country. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S2238-10312013000200011

Lim, Robert, Zhen Qian and H. Michael Zhang. Development of Freight Demand Generation Model: Application to California with Validation,  (2013) 23p.
Abstract - The growth in freight transportation demand prompts the development of better tools to evaluate and analyze goods movement. Tools such as freight demand generation models can improve decision-making through the analysis of the types and quantity of goods moved from one point to another. This paper concerns with the disaggregation of the Federal Highway Administration’s Freight Analysis Framework database (version 3.0) on freight origin-destination data and the development of linear regression equations to describe the relationships between commodity-based productions/attractions to specific economic variables. Instead of generating a production/attraction equation for each commodity, the grouping of commodities can simplify model development and application. The authors consider three grouping methods and two model selection criteria (with and without intercepts). Commodity equations with high R2 values were more likely to generate outputs closer to the actual 2007 data in the calibration process. In addition to the discussion of model selection and commodity grouping, the freight generation models are further validated using county-level economic data in California and applied to predict 2015 commodity outputs. This study can be used as a guideline for city, county, metropolitan and state level planning agencies to develop their own customized freight demand generation model. 
Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20130113 EndDate:20130117 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20130113 EndDate:20130117 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Mishra, Sabyasachee. An Integrated Framework for Modeling Freight Mode and Route Choice, (2013), 2p.
Abstract - This paper presents a freight choice model, to be used in freight travel demand modeling, that uses only open source databases. Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) was the only open source data available to analyze freight mode choice with limited aggregated commodity flow data. Using the state of Maryland as the study area, the author examined relevant factors for the mode choice, which has implications for freight planning and decision making. A multivariate logistic model was developed with aggregate shipment data to examine the relationship between truck share and origin and destination zone characteristics. The results of the study found that trucks and rail carried more than 95% of the commodities and that truck share is highly influenced by the distance between origin and destination. The author suggests that the model can be applied to estimate the average change of the truck share or other modes, for use in Maryland’s future planning. 	Notes - (Sabya) http://www.roads.maryland.gov/OPR_Research/MD-13-SP209B4F_An-Integrated-Framework-for-Modeling-Freight-Mode-and-Route-Choice_Report.pdf

Mohammadian, Kouros, Karl Sturm, Zahra Pourabdollahi and Amir Samimi. Goods Movement Study in Illinois: Application to Freight Transportation and Logistics, (2013), 44p.
Abstract - This report details the results generated by a recently completed nationwide online freight establishment study. The survey was assembled with the intention of allowing the formulation or enhancement of new or existing freight-demand microsimulation models. Within this report is an overview of the steps taken in designing and implementing the establishment and shipment questionnaires of the freight survey. Following that is a descriptive analysis of the results of key questions posed in the survey. Over the course of the study, 966 usable establishment surveys and 1,844 shipment forms were collected and assembled in a database, an adequate number for modeling purposes. 	 http://ict.illinois.edu/publications/report%20files/FHWA-ICT-13-010.pdf

Nuzzolo, Agostino, Pierluigi Coppola and Antonio Comi. Freight Transport Modeling: Review and Future Challenges. International Journal of Transport Economics 40, no. 2 (2013): pp 151-181.
Abstract - This article, from a special issue on freight transport, summarizes the models that have been used in the past two decades to forecast freight transport demand, particularly as they are used to represent changes in infrastructure, services, and regulation. The authors propose a classification based on different scales of analysis, from long-distance to short-distance freight transport, as well as based on different modeling approaches, such as aggregate versus disaggregate. The authors describe how aggregated models, which focus on specific commodities and use time series data to estimate current demand, use a four-stage model. The next section addresses specific issues related to short-distance scale, focusing on the distribution of the final products from wholesalers and restocking centers to scattered retailers (i.e., “the last mile” logistics). In the final section, the authors offer comments on the policy relevance of these models. 	 

Outwater, M., C. Smith, K. Wies, S. Yoder, B. Sana and J. Chen. Tour Based and Supply Chain Modeling for Freight: Integrated Model Demonstration in Chicago. Transportation Letters: the International Journal of Transportation Research 5, no. 2 (2013): pp 55-66.
Abstract - Despite recent advances in freight and commercial vehicle modeling, the current state of the practice methods are not adequate to address the increasingly complex issues related to freight demand. This project includes research that has combined tour based truck models and logistics supply chain models for urban commercial vehicle movements and that has demonstrated a functional model framework that addresses the limitations of current freight demand forecasting models. The research was performed by Resource Systems Group Inc., in partnership with the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning and the University of Illinois at Chicago. The project introduced a model framework and focused on the estimation of each of the model components, described the approach to linking the models together in the model application, and presented initial results from applying the model in the Chicago region. The models were estimated for demonstration purposes from several sources, since there were no datasets that could support all aspects of the new framework. To make the demonstration more practical, two commodities were chosen to model from the data available (food products and manufactured products). The models developed for the project were applied using software developed in R, an open source platform. A data collection program to support the estimation, calibration, and forecasting of the framework for future use was recommended. Further efforts to improve this framework with new data, model improvements, and forecasts would be welcome. 	 http://library.ingentaconnect.com/content/maney/trl/2013/00000005/00000002/art00002
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/maney/trl/2013/00000005/00000002/art00002

Ranaiefar, Fatemeh, Joseph Y. J. Chow, Daniel Rodriguez-Roman, Pedro V. Camargo and Stephen G. Ritchie. Structural Commodity Generation Model That Uses Public Data: Geographic Scalability and Supply Chain Elasticity Analysis. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2378 (2013): pp 73–83.
Abstract - Freight forecasting models are data intensive and require many explanatory variables to be accurate. One problem, particularly in the United States, is that public data sources are mostly at highly aggregate geographic levels but models with more disaggregate geographic levels are required for regional freight transportation planning. A second problem is that supply chain effects are often ignored or modeled with economic input–output models that lack explanatory power. This study addressed these challenges with a structural equation modeling approach that was not confined to a specific spatial structure, as spatial regression models would have been, and allowed correlations between commodities. A model for structural commodity generation that was based on freight analysis framework was specified, estimated, and shown to provide a better fit to the data than did independent regression models for each commodity. Three features of the model are discussed: indirect effects, supply chain elasticity, and intrazonal supply–demand interactions. A goal programming method was used with imputed data to validate the geographic scalability of the model. 	 http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2378-08

Smith, Colin, Jason Chen, Bhargava Sana and Maren L. Outwater. Disaggregate Tour-Based Truck Model with Simulation of Shipment Allocation to Trucks,  (2013) 17p.
Abstract - Recent advances in freight and commercial vehicle modeling have tended to focus on either tour-based truck models or on logistics supply chain models, but relatively little progress has been made on combining the two paradigms into an integrated model framework that models both shipments and truck movements in a disaggregate manner, such that the amount of travel and the travel patterns of local freight truck movement is responsive to changes such as the amount of production and consumption of commodities in a region. This paper describes a tour-based truck model for urban commercial vehicle movement that is part of such a complete framework, developed by the authors and demonstrated in the Chicago metropolitan region. The tour-based truck model’s demand for truck trips derives from a microsimulation of individual shipments, the businesses that ship and receive the shipments, and the distribution centers through which the shipments are moved. The model links shipments coming through distribution centers with the vehicles that will deliver them. The model is comprised of a sequence of discrete choice models and clustering and sequencing models to build vehicle tours. The discrete choice models were estimated using the Texas commercial vehicle survey and then applied in Chicago. The paper presents the specifications of the models that comprise the tour-based truck model and discusses their reasonableness with respect to observed truck movements from the Texas commercial vehicle survey. 
Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20130113 EndDate:20130117 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC,USA StartDate:20130113 EndDate:20130117 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Wang, Yaowu, Chuan Ding, Chao Liu and Binglei Xie. An Analysis of Interstate Freight Mode Choice between Truck and Rail: A Case Study of Maryland, United States,  (2013),Elsevier Science,  pp 1239-1249.
Abstract - Freight mode choice is a critical part in modeling freight demand. Due to limited freight data, considerably less research has been conducted on freight mode choice than that in passenger demand analysis. This paper investigates unobserved factors influencing freight mode choices, including truck and rail. Revealed preference data is collected from Freight Analysis Framework database and aggregated to be used in this study. Binary probit and logit models are developed to compare the modal behavior and to verify the differences of mode choice behavior among the three zones in Maryland. Different factors which are significantly influencing the freight mode choice can be found for the shipments originated from these zones. Identifying these factors may help the freight modelers to establish and calibrate better freight demand models for Maryland, and can help the policy makers to take actions to reduce highway congestion and air pollution which is caused by trucks. 
13th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2013)Transportation Research BoardAmerican Society of Civil EngineersInstitute of Transportation EngineersElsevierShenzhen,China StartDate:20130813 EndDate:20130816 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, American Society of Civil Engineers, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Elsevier - 13th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals (CICTP 2013)Transportation Research BoardAmerican Society of Civil EngineersInstitute of Transportation EngineersElsevierShenzhen,China StartDate:20130813 EndDate:20130816 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, American Society of Civil Engineers, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Elsevier, Cation, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.08.141
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042813022672

2014	(11)

Beuthe, M., B. Jourquin and N. Urbain. Measuring Freight Transport Elasticities with a Multimodal Network Model,  (2014) 15p.
Abstract - The paper presents a full set of freight demand elasticities for the three modes of rail, road, and waterways navigation with respect to transport cost changes. They are derived from a trans-European transport model developed within the EU’s ECCONET program for analyzing traffics that could possibly use waterways transport on the river Rhine and Danube, and for assessing the impacts of climate change on inland navigation. The transport model is based on the NODUS software applied with a multi-flows assignment technique, which minimizes transport costs. Elasticities are presented as aggregate elasticities over a set of 11 commodities, and separately for each commodity; direct and cross-elasticities are also given as well as elasticities per distance category. An important part of the paper is given to comparisons and discussions with and between previously published results. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Cordova, Francisco and Nathan Huynh. Using Economic Indicators to Perform Short-Term Truck Traffic Forecasting: A Time Series and Truck Traffic Analysis Framework,  (2014) 16p.
Abstract - As freight traffic continues to grow, there is an increasing need for accurate truck forecasting methods to alleviate financial, social and environmental impacts. Although several freight demand forecasting techniques are currently being used by state departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), the most commonly used methods require significant amount of detailed truck traffic data, origin-destination information, commodity flow, and/or socio-economic factors to perform forecasts and validation. This study developed a framework consisting of time series and truck traffic analysis techniques using economic indicators to perform short term truck traffic forecasting. Economic data, unlike truck flow or origin-destination data, are more readily available and is a robust indicator for truck traffic, as changes in economic activity have been historically linked with changes in truck traffic. Given a dataset, the framework optimizes the parameters for each method and performs forecasts. Forecast performance is evaluated amongst the different methods based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Average Percentage Errors (MAPE). The method with the lowest error is selected. The developed framework overcomes the limitation in current practice of having to develop and maintain unique forecasting models for different geographic areas for short term forecasting, as it provides the ability to compare the accuracy of multiple optimized methods simultaneously. Three states with distinct geographic, economic and freight characteristics were selected to validate the framework. Results indicated that the developed framework provided accurate forecasts of truck traffic, with mean average percentage errors MAPE less than 2.9 for all three states. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Gonzalez-Calderon, Carlos and José Holguín-Veras. Freight Tour Synthesis and the Influence of Sampling Procedures,  (2014) 15p.
Abstract - This paper introduces an entropy-maximization model to estimate the flows of delivery tours on the basis of traffic counts, and develops heuristic approaches to identify the location of the traffic counts that should support the estimation process. To this effect, the authors developed a mathematical formulation that combines entropy maximization demand model and traffic assignment constraints to minimize the error between observed and modeled traffic volumes. Three heuristics are defined and implemented. The performing of the formulation and the heuristics are tested in the Sioux Falls network. 
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Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus, Christian Ambrosini and Alain Bonnafous. An Alternative to O-D Matrix Estimation for Urban Goods Transport Demand Generation,  (2014) 15p.
Abstract - This paper presents an alternative method to origin-destination (O-D) matrix for estimating road occupancy of urban goods movement (UGM). The originality of the model arises on three main elements. The first is that the modelling unit is the number of movements, i.e. the number of pickup and delivery operations. The second is that it follows a bottom-up approach, starting from a rich database, to define different behavioural functions. The third is that the road occupancy for deliveries or distances travelled can therefore be calculated for any city possessing a sufficiently well-informed register of businesses. First, the literature in the field is reviewed and the paper positioned. Then, the main methodological elements are presented. Finally, several validation results that show the pertinence of the hypotheses behind the proposed model are presented and discussed. 
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Jaller, Miguel, Ivan Sanchez-Diaz and José Holguín-Veras. Freight Trip Attraction, Freight Trip Production, and the Role of Freight Intermediaries,  (2014) 14p.
Abstract - This paper discusses the freight trip attraction (FTA) and freight trip production (FTP) patterns of establishments in different industry sectors. In addition, the paper compares the freight trip generation of pure receiver establishments, i.e., establishments that only receive goods, and intermediaries i.e., establishments that both receive and ship goods. The paper provides a descriptive analysis of the data used and the results using freight trip generation models estimated by the authors. These indicate that there are important differences between production and attraction between establishments across and within industry segments, and between pure receivers and intermediaries. 
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Jaller, Miguel, Ivan Sanchez-Diaz, José Holguín-Veras and Catherine T. Lawson. Area Based Freight Trip Generation Models,  (2014) 11p.
Abstract - The paper introduces a set of area based freight trip generation (FTG) models. In addition, the paper assesses the performance of the area and with employment based FTG models estimated by the authors in previous studies. The paper uses two samples of trip generation data from receiver and carrier companies in New York and New Jersey, collected in 2006 and 2012, to conduct external validation of the models. In addition, the paper explores the use of different definitions of area, such as building, commercial, retail and office for FTG modeling. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://docs.trb.org/prp/14-4908.pdf

Kuppam, Arun, Jason Lemp, Dan Beagan, Vladimir Livshits, Lavanya Vallabhaneni and Sreevatsa Nippani. Development of a Tour-Based Truck Travel Demand Model Using Truck Gps Data,  (2014) 27p.
Abstract - The concept of truck travel demand forecasting, internal to a region, has always been built upon modeling discrete truck trip ends, distributing truck trip ends to various origins and destinations using travel time impedances and some land use characteristics, and allocating truck trip tables into distinct time periods using factors derived from observed counts. An innovative enhancement to this approach is to apply activity-based modeling (ABM) principles to truck tour characteristics and develop a tour-based truck travel demand model. This paper focuses on two aspects – (a) processing of truck GPS data, and (b) developing a tour-based truck model. The processing of truck GPS data is done for the MAG region to construct a truck tour database necessary for estimating tour-based models. The tour-based models include stop generation and purpose models, and time period allocation and duration models to predict the occurrence of truck stops in space and time for each industry sector. This paper also discusses the calibration and validation of these discrete choice models that are linked together to output trip chains or truck tours for different industry sectors. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://docs.trb.org/prp/14-4293.pdf

Ma, Yinyi, Roelof Kuik and Henk J. van Zuylen. Hierarchical Bayesian Networks for Freight Truck Origin Destination Estimation,  (2014) 19p.
Abstract - Road traffic has stochastic characteristics. That is also the case for freight traffic. Both the demand and the flow of freight vehicles in a network during a certain time period are non-deterministic. In order to properly represent the truck demand and flow, stochastic methods need to be applied. Hierarchical Bayesian Network is one approach to take care of the stochastic nature of the variables, which may follow certain distributions. Recent years has seen massive advanced monitoring systems, such as Automated-Number-Plate-Recognition (ANPR) cameras and Bluetooth scanners, being installed along the road network, which can identify individual vehicles. These devices can deliver rich traffic information, which is potentially useful to estimate OD matrix of freight trucks. The case study on the A15 motorway in the Netherlands demonstrates that with the assumption of the Normal distributions, the Hierarchical Bayesian Network is able to get the same expected value of the posterior demand as the mean value of the ground truth demand. But the covariance matrices vary along the different combinations of detectors. Path flows from cameras can reduce the randomness significantly, around a 90.21% reduction of the covariance of demand estimation errors and 61.09% reduction of the covariance of flow prediction errors from the worst case of three loops installed to the best case of full coverage of cameras and loops. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, 

Ranaiefar, Fatemeh, Joseph Y. J. Chow, Michael G. McNally and Stephen G. Ritchie. A Structural Direct Demand Model for Inter-Regional Commodity Flow Forecasting,  (2014) 20p.
Abstract - A new framework for inter-regional commodity flow forecasting is presented to improve estimates of freight demand for inter-regional and statewide transportation models. The Structural Equations for Multi-Commodity OD Distribution (SEMCOD) model is based on simultaneous direct demand equations with structural relationships between dependent and independent variables of the model. SEMCOD is a flexible model that integrates the generation and distribution steps in conventional four-step demand models. This integration provides consistent estimates for elasticity analysis of effective factors for freight flows at the OD level and for productions and attractions at the zone level. Also, the model is sensitive to policies that increase or decrease generalized transportation cost, not only for flow distribution but also by measuring the change in marginal production and attraction of each zone. Unlike gravity-type models, this framework provides the opportunity to identify homogenous clusters of ODs and to more accurately estimate parameters for each cluster. The proposed model is estimated using the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF3) and other publicly available data sources for 15 commodity groups. Elasticity of different factors on production, attraction and flow of different commodity groups with respect to industry specific employment, population, industrial GDP, variables related to consumption and production of energy and land use variables, are studied. Considering cross relationships between supply chains of different commodity groups in the model significantly improved the fitness of the model. The fitness measures confirm satisfactory performance of the model. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://docs.trb.org/prp/14-0878.pdf

Shabani, Kaveh, Chad Worthen, Maren Outwater and Walt Steinvorth. Development of a Statewide Freight Trip Forecasting Model for Utah,  (2014) 15p.
Abstract - Trucking is the primary source of goods movement in Utah. The Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) commissioned the development of a statewide freight model to assist in statewide long-range planning and to better assess roadway impacts from trucks. A long-haul commodity-based model combined with a short-haul commercial vehicle model was developed and integrated with the Utah Statewide Travel Model (USTM), which forecasts passenger travel for the state. This paper includes a discussion of the source data used in the freight model development and long-haul and short-haul forecasting methods and calibration results. This paper also discusses data needs and how alternate sources of data were used to overcome initial data deficiencies. Moreover, lessons learned to assist other regions seeking to develop freight demand modeling approaches are discussed. 
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation, http://docs.trb.org/prp/14-3859.pdf

Zhou, Wei, Qin Chen and Jie Lin. Empirical Study of Urban Commercial Vehicle Tour Patterns in Texas,  (2014) 12p.
Abstract - The movement of goods plays a crucial role in the United States economy. However, the understanding of urban commercial vehicle movements and how it can be effectively modeled is still at a primitive stage compared to passenger transportation, despite some recent studies and modeling efforts. Furthermore, geographical/regional differences make commercial vehicle movements very different across regions. This study aims at providing another empirical investigation of urban commercial vehicle movements in five metropolitan regions - San Antonio, Amarillo, Valley, Lubbock and Austin - in Texas. This study attempts to quantify, with a tour choice model, how factors such as land use type, shipment demand, cargo type, loading/unloading cargo weight and travel speed affect the commercial vehicle daily trip chaining strategies. Model results show that commercial vehicle tour patterns tend to be associated with commodity type, land use type, loading/unloading cargo weight and travel speed. Moreover, the effects of those variables are different in the five Texas urban areas than the other regions documented in the literature. 
(Jane)
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board - (Jane)
Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual MeetingTransportation Research BoardWashington,DC StartDate:20140112 EndDate:20140116 Sponsors:Transportation Research Board, Cation,